Interrelation Between Kondratieff Cycles and Global Systemic Conclicts

By: M. Z. Zgurovsky

Based on the consideration of evolutionary development of the civilization as a holistic process determined by a harmonious interaction of its components, patterns of Kondratieff cycles of the development of the global economy and C-waves of global systemic conflicts are compared and an attempt is made to predict these processes in the 21st century using a metric approach.

Keywords: global systemic conflicts, Fibonacci sequence, C-waves, K-cycles, scenarios, quantization principle, monotonicity principle.

INTRODUCTION

One of the major challenges to modern science because of the prompt development of the global economic crisis and aggravation of global conflicts is to draw up scientifically justified “metric” express forecasts of the social development for near and far future. The role of any scientific forecasts and predictions should not be exaggerated since they are conventional and limited, especially in the cases where the process being analyzed passes to the so-called “blow-up mode” [1]. However, the reliability of any forecast considerably increases if it “resonates” with other global or local tendencies, hypotheses, and patterns. In our study, such additional conditions are modern hypotheses that the historical time accelerates and the duration of Kondratieff cycles (K-cycles) tend to reduce [2, 3] with the scientific and technological progress.

Proceeding from the above facts and considering the evolutionary development of the civilization as a holistic process, which is determined by a harmonious interaction of its components, we will compare the patterns of Kondratieff cycles of the development of global economy and Ñ-waves of global systemic conflicts [4] and will make an attempt to predict the course of periodic processes in the 21st century.

Link to material: http://ifors.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/8.pdf