A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis

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Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu · Linet Ozdamar · Erik Kropat · Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber


The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, understanding, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational devel- opment paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for modeling the phenomenon of intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS by non-disclosure. The model is built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attri- butes relevant to the risky conduct of HIV+ individuals in any given community. The proposed model uses a hypothetical cross impact matrix that relates pairs of attributes. The factors that impact non-disclosure are identified by simulating the model through dynamic difference equations. After the simulation results are reviewed, two policies are introduced and tested in order to observe the progress in the system state.

Link to material: http://www.ifors.org/developing_countries/downloads/aug16-2013/A-system-dynamics-model-for-intentional-transmission-of-HIVAIDS-using-cross-impact-analysis.pdf