Title of Presentation: Stochastic Optimization, Statistical Modeling and Distributed Processing Applied to Energy Planning

Abstract:

The explosive growth of renewables has compounded the modeling challenges for investment and operational decisions in the energy area: (i) joint representation of hydro, wind, solar as a multivariate, multiscale stochastic process; (ii) solving the co-optimization of storage (hydro, batteries etc.), renewable-driven generation reserves and power transmission as a multistage nonconvex stochastic optimization; and (iii) because renewable integration benefits from regional interconnections (portfolio effect), probabilistic simulations are carried out for very large systems. In this talk, we show that these challenges can be successfully addressed by the combination of: new nonconvex stochastic optimization algorithms such as SDDiP; advanced geoprocessing and Bayesian networks; distributed computational and data management tools; and new optimization- centered programming languages such as Julia/JUMP. The application of these tools will be illustrated with real planning studies for the US Pacific Northwest and energy integration of South America.

Bio

Mario Pereira is an electrical engineer and has MSc and DSc degrees in optimization. He is the CEO of PSR, a provider of analytical tools and consulting services in electricity and natural gas in more than 70 countries in the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific. Some recent consulting/modeling work includes: principal advisor of Brazil’s energy contracting auctions (80 GW of new generation capacity, for about US$ 550 billion); development of a new generation planning model for the US Pacific Northwest; a price forecasting system for the Scandinavian Nordpool; the interconnection study of 15 Latin American countries; and power market reforms of Turkey, Vietnam and Mexico.Dr. Pereira has developed the well-known multistage stochastic optimization algorithm SDDP, which has been applied worldwide in energy, finance and other areas, as well as novel methods for optimal expansion planning and supply reliability evaluation. He is an IEEE Fellow; an elected member of Brazil’s Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering; was awarded a Presidential Medal for his contribution to Brazil’s electricity sector; a Scientific Merit Medal for his research contributions; and is a co-recipient of the Franz Edelman Award for the development of stochastic optimization tools for the operation of hydrothermal systems. He is the author and co-author of four books and about 200 papers in refereed journals.