Present and Future Migration Flows into Europe

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by Berat Kjamili

I. Executive Summary

Migration has been country of registered refugees, with over 3.6 million Syrian refugees. After Turkey opened its border to Greece on 28 February 2020, the government claims that more than 142,000 refugees have arrived at the Turkish-Greek border to enter Europe. In Syria, around 1.5 million people from Idlib are waiting at the Turkish-Syrian border to enter Turkey. Turkey had previously warned about a new refugee influx from Idlib. Currently, as the refugees arrive at the Turkish- Syrian border, Turkey is signalling that it is no longer willing to carry the burden alone. Turkey believes that the European Union has not kept its promises. The European Union argues that the rules and regulations of the funds have caused delays in payments. Therefore, neither side is happy with the situation. Turkey aims to establish a safe zone in Idlib and resettle refugees in Idlib. Failing this, it will help the refugees reach other countries to prevent a new influx in Turkey. It is asking for a fair share basis regarding the resettlement of refugees, which may be a new situation for Europe over the coming years. The refugees in Turkey are not happy with their working conditions, and they want to move to Europe for the sake of their children and their future. Even if the refugees with a residence permit in Turkey or Turkish citizenship are discounted, there is still a group among Syrians who can migrate. Some experts suggest that Afghans who are in Turkey without protected status are the ones who will potentially aim to migrate to Europe. The Migration Management office of the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Turkey has reported that there are 201,437 irregular Afghans in Turkey. However, the number might be higher than can be observed from the situation at the borders. The 142,000 people waiting at the Turkish-Greek border, this is not only a number these are 142,000 human lives. Before this situation turns into a human tragedy, a solution is urgently required. Europe should consider the situation at the borders above politics. Neither the 30,000 people stated by Greece nor the number reported by Turkey matters. Even if there were only a few people at the border, the asylum process requires proper documentation and analysis, together with humanitarian assistance to refugees.

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